Alabama (9 EVs), Connecticut (7 EVs), Delaware (3 EVs), D.C. (3 EVs), Illinois (21 EVs), Maine (4 EVs), Maryland (10 EVs), Massachusetts (12 EVs), Mississippi (6 EVs), New Jersey (15 EVs), Oklahoma (7 EVs), Tennessee (11 EVs) – Polling indicates all of these states will look just like they did in ’04.

Florida (27 EVs) – Polls show Obama leading here, reversing the ’04 Dubya win. McCain needs this state to win. I don’t see any likely scenario that shows McCain becoming President without this state.

Missouri (11 EVs) – Polls show a toss up. As goes Missouri, so goes the nation.

New Hampshire (4 EVs) – Polls show Obama to wrap this up with a huge percentage. If this state remains close…McCain is doing well nationally.

Indiana (11 EVs) - Polls are showing this as a toss up with McCain leading by 1%. Dubya won this state by 21% in ’04. If this state remains close, as Georgia, it is a negative indicator for McCain. However, it if and Georgia hold to form, McCain may be doing very well tonight.

Kentucky (8 EVs), South Carolina (8 EVs), Vermont (3) -  Polls seem to be holding to form and I believe these states will do so tonight. Kentucky and South Carolina to McCain, Vermont to Obama.

Ohio (20 EVs) – Polling shows a reverse of ’04. This state should be close 1-3%. If it gets bigger either way, it will be a good night for whomever it is going by a larger margin.

• 6:00 PM: Dinner’s finished, as well as the polls in six states worth 58 EVs. Whether it’s indigestion or the action on the tube, two states stand out to me. Indiana (11 EVs) and Virginia (13 EVs) which were comfortable wins for Dubya in ’04 but have been polling close. If McCain gets Indiana early it will bode well for him nationally.  Give McCain 42 EVs (Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, and South Carolina) and Obama 3 EVs (Vermont). Virginia will be a toss up for now, too close to call. Just started my first pot of coffee.
• 6:30PM: Sipping my first cup of coffee and enjoying its flavor, I also sip the returns from West Virginia (5 EVs) and Ohio (20 EVs) as the caffeine and polls begin to resonate. Give McCain 5 EVs (West Virginia) for 47 total. Ohio resonates as a sort of a microcosm of the United States. As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency. Too close to call it is now a toss up with its 33 EVs. Man, this coffee is GOOD.
• 7:00 PM: Just poured second cup of coffee as the returns from sixteen states worth of EVs, a total of 171, pour in. My steady, stimulated gaze is on New Hampshire. Should go early to Obama and by double-digits. If it doesn’t, it bodes well for McCain nationally. McCain gets 33 EVs (Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee) for a total of 80 while Obama gets 79 EVs (Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New Jersey) for a total of 82. Toss up 59 EVs (Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania) for a total of 92. I just tossed my kids in the tub for their nightly baths.
• 7:30 PM: Kids are clean and in jammies just in time to see our state, worth 6 EVs, and North Carolina, worth 15 EVs, close their polls. McCain gets 6 EVs (Arkansas) for a total of 86 EVs, while toss ups increase to 107 with the addition of North Carolina.
• 8:00 PM: I’m getting the shakes, whether its caffeine or anticipation, they are serious! Just like the number of EVs, 156 to be exact, now on the board. I shudder watching Arizona because it will indicate how well McCain is doing in the southwest. If it goes to McCain by a solid margin, he will do well in the region. McCain gets 70 EVs (Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming) Obama receives 72 EVs (Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin). Fourteen EVs (Colorado, New Mexico) get added to the toss up. TOTALS: McCain 156, Obama 154, Toss up 121.
• 9:00 PM: Kids are snoozing and I am snacking on my Snickers along with the returns from Iowa. If Obama gets Iowa by a large margin he will also be strong in the midwest. McCain gets 8 EVs (Montana and Utah) for a total of 164 and Obama gets 7 EVs (Iowa) for a total of 161. Toss up adds 5 EVs (Nevada) to total 126. Coffee and Snickers go good together.
• 10:00 PM: As I brew my second pot of coffee, 84 more electoral votes have brewed up. While North Dakota (3 EVs) will be close, I believe all of these states will remain in their ’04 categories. McCain picks up 7 EVs (Idaho and North Dakota) and Obama picks up 77 EVs (California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington). California could be interestingly tighter with the Gay Marriage Ban on the ballot. McCain 171, Obama 238, Toss up 126.
• 12:00 AM: Intravenous coffee, now that’s an idea! It’s hard to go back and forth from exit polls, to returns, to my coffee, to my blog, to the TV. Which, by the way, just called Palin’s passion, Alaska (3 EVs) for McCain increasing his total to 174. My ears are ringing and I’m bouncing like gnat on espresso.
• RIDICULOUSLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING: My hair is now standing on end. At this point, I don’t care if it is caffeine or anxiety induced because the tossups are beginning to break. If you value sleep, just keep an eye on Indiana, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Iowa for the reasons stated above and you will have a good idea how the rest will go. However, some of you rather enjoy zombie-dom. For arguments sake, because lack of sleep makes me cranky, I’ll give McCain 78 Toss up EVs (Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio) and Obama 27 Toss up EVs (Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia). McCain 252, Obama 265, Tossup 21. The Keystone state (Pennsylvania) should decide the election. How much impact will McCain’s surge have there? What about Murtha’s racist, redneck comments? I’m not going to call this one…you need a reason to keep watching…and I need a reason for more coffee.

Remember, the ONLY poll that matters is the one on Election Day! Take your kids with you…they may be motivated to shape this nation for generations to come. My dad took me. Look at how I turned out…well, I’m sort of an extreme example.

Join me on election night on my blog for analysis at http://dtatp.blogtownhall.com/ as I post my moment to moment thoughts throughout election night. You can share your thoughts as well while you are there. I will have plenty of coffee on hand!