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Embraced by History

Wiping the tears of disappointment from my eyes, I fix my unwaveringly patriotic gaze upon the soon-to-be 44th President of our great nation, the United States of America. Stunned, I rub the blur from my eyes as I realize that he is different from any President I have seen.

Did we really just elect a black man to the office of President of the United States of America for the first time in our evolving history? Yes we did! Congratulations President-elect Barack Obama.

It is not that I’m not caught up in the charisma of his candidacy, or in the planks of his platform.  I am instead captivated by the momentum of the moment. I’m proud to be an American. The American in me drives me to ask, “What does this mean for us now?”

Does this mean that we can finally move past the hateful divisions and repulsive rhetoric that have shaped our discussions about the color of a person’s skin in this country? Does this mean that the race baiters are left baitless? Does this not emphatically evidence that this nation has moved away from the bleak shacks of our past into the marvelous mansions of our future?

Personally, I despise hearing it described as a racial divide. Why? There is no white race. There is no black race. There is no tan race. There is only the human race! We are all uniquely and supremely human.  And the more, we are uniquely and supremely American!

While I still have my reservations about how this man will govern, I have no such reservations about the ability of the American people to carry this nation forward. Leaving behind the hatred of the past, straining ahead to the homogeneity of our future, our generation is the one privileged with witnessing this awesome feat.

In that vein, I’ll sleep tonight…embraced by history.
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6:30 PM Poll Closings, Take 2

TIME
 
 
realclearpolitics.com
fivethirtyeight.com
2004 Result
6:30 PM
STATE
EV
McCain
Obama
Dif
McCain
Obama
Dif
Bush
Kerry
Dif
 
OHIO
20
46.3
48.8
-2.5
47.4
50.6
-3.2
51
49
2
 
WEST VIRGINIA
5
51.4
42.4
9.0
53.7
44.1
9.6
56
43
13
 
TOTAL
25
5
20
 
5
20
 
25
0
 
 
ELECTION TOTAL
83
47
36
 
47
36
 
80
3
 
 

Ohio (20 EVs) – Polling shows a reverse of ’04. This state should be close 1-3%. If it gets bigger either way, it will be a good night for whomever it is going by a larger margin.

West Virginia (5 EVs) -  Polling indicates this state holding close to its ’04 form. McCain should take this by 10% or more. Again, close race here is indicative.

Gotta scoot, soccer practice coming up. I'll post the 7PM Poll Closings when I return.
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6:00 PM Poll Closings, Take 2

TIME
 
 
realclearpolitics.com
fivethirtyeight.com
2004 Result
6:00 PM
STATE
EV
McCain
Obama
Dif
McCain
Obama
Dif
Bush
Kerry
Dif
 
GEORGIA
15
49.9
45.8
4.1
51.5
47.1
4.4
58
41
17
 
INDIANA
11
47.8
46.4
1.4
49.6
48.5
1.1
60
39
21
 
KENTUCKY
8
54.5
41.0
13.5
56.1
42.1
14.0
60
40
20.0
 
SOUTH CAROLINA
8
53.0
43.0
10.0
54.7
44.0
10.7
58
41
17
 
VERMONT
3
34.6
58.4
-23.8
37.1
59.6
-22.5
39
59
-20
 
VIRGINIA
13
45.8
50.2
-4.4
46.6
51.8
-5.2
54
46
8
 
TOTAL
58
42
16
 
42
16
 
55
3
 
 
Posting this now, got soccer practice with my four-year-old until 6:30PM.
 
Georgia (15 EVs) - Polls have been showing this state as a close race, about a 4% difference. Dubya won this state by 17% in ’04. I expect McCain to win this state by about 7-10%. If this state remains close, 4% or less, it is a negative indicator for McCain nationally.

Indiana (11 EVs) - Polls are showing this as a toss up with McCain leading by 1%. Dubya won this state by 21% in ’04. If this state remains close, as Georgia, it is a negative indicator for McCain. However, it if and Georgia hold to form, McCain may be doing very well tonight.

Kentucky (8 EVs), South Carolina (8 EVs), Vermont (3) -  Polls seem to be holding to form and I believe these states will do so tonight. Kentucky and South Carolina to McCain, Vermont to Obama.

Virginia (13 EVs) – Polls have shown Obama leading in this state that Bush won by 8% in ’04. If this state remains with 1-3%, the election is going well for McCain nationally. However, if Obama is leading by 3 or more %...it will be a short night!
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6:30 PM Poll Closings

TIME     realclearpolitics.com fivethirtyeight.com 2004 Result AVG Last 4 Results
6:30 PM STATE EV McCain Obama Dif McCain Obama Dif Bush Kerry Dif GOP DEM Dif
  OHIO 20 46.3 48.8 -2.5 47.4 50.6 -3.2 51 49 2 45 45.5 -0.5
  WEST VIRGINIA 5 51.4 42.4 9.0 53.7 44.1 9.6 56 43 13 45 47.25 -2.3
  TOTAL 25 5 20   5 20   25 0 0 25
ELECTION TOTAL 83 47 36 47 36 80 3 55 28
 

Ohio (20 EVs) – Polling shows a reverse of ’04. This state should be close 1-3%. If it gets bigger either way, it will be a good night for whomever it is going by a larger margin.

West Virginia (5 EVs) -  Polling indicates this state holding close to its ’04 form. McCain should take this by 10% or more. Again, close race here is indicative.
 
I gotta hop. Soccer practice you know. I will post the 7:00 pm closings upon my return.
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6:00 PM Poll Closings

TIME
 
 
realclearpolitics.com
fivethirtyeight.com
2004 Result
AVG Last 4 Results
6:00 PM
STATE
EV
McCain
Obama
Dif
McCain
Obama
Dif
Bush
Kerry
Dif
GOP
DEM
Dif
 
GEORGIA
15
49.9
45.8
4.1
51.5
47.1
4.4
58
41
17
50.75
43.5
7.25
 
INDIANA
11
47.8
46.4
1.4
49.6
48.5
1.1
60
39
21
51.75
39.75
12
 
KENTUCKY
8
54.5
41.0
13.5
56.1
42.1
14.0
60
40
20.0
50.5
43
7.5
 
SOUTH CAROLINA
8
53.0
43.0
10.0
54.7
44.0
10.7
58
41
17
53
42.25
10.8
 
VERMONT
3
34.6
58.4
-23.8
37.1
59.6
-22.5
39
59
-20
35.25
52.25
-17
 
VIRGINIA
13
45.8
50.2
-4.4
46.6
51.8
-5.2
54
46
8
49.75
44
5.75
 
TOTAL
58
42
16
 
42
16
 
55
3
 
55
3
 
 
 I'm posting these now because I will be at soccer practice with my four-year-old until after 6:30pm.

Georgia (15 EVs) - Polls have been showing this state as a close race, about a 4% difference. Dubya won this state by 17% in ’04. I expect McCain to win this state by about 7-10%. If this state remains close, 4% or less, it is a negative indicator for McCain nationally.

Indiana (11 EVs) - Polls are showing this as a toss up with McCain leading by 1%. Dubya won this state by 21% in ’04. If this state remains close, as Georgia, it is a negative indicator for McCain. However, it if and Georgia hold to form, McCain may be doing very well tonight.

Kentucky (8 EVs), South Carolina (8 EVs), Vermont (3) -  Polls seem to be holding to form and I believe these states will do so tonight. Kentucky and South Carolina to McCain, Vermont to Obama.

Virginia (13 EVs) – Polls have shown Obama leading in this state that Bush won by 8% in ’04. If this state remains with 1-3%, the election is going well for McCain nationally. However, if Obama is leading by 3 or more %...it will be a short night!
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Election Primer

Election night is upon us! Did you vote? I certainly hope so. What follows is a primer of what to expect, hour by hour, on election night. Electoral votes will be EVs in the following primer, 270 are needed to win. Real Clear Politics polling averages are used for polling references.
  • 6:00 PM: Dinner’s finished, as well as the polls in six states worth 58 EVs. Whether it’s indigestion or the action on the tube, two states stand out to me. Indiana (11 EVs) and Virginia (13 EVs) which were comfortable wins for Dubya in ’04 but have been polling close. If McCain gets Indiana early it will bode well for him nationally.  Give McCain 42 EVs (Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, and South Carolina) and Obama 3 EVs (Vermont). Virginia will be a toss up for now, too close to call. Just started my first pot of coffee.
  • 6:30PM: Sipping my first cup of coffee and enjoying its flavor, I also sip the returns from West Virginia (5 EVs) and Ohio (20 EVs) as the caffeine and polls begin to resonate. Give McCain 5 EVs (West Virginia) for 47 total. Ohio resonates as a sort of a microcosm of the United States. As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency. Too close to call it is now a toss up with its 33 EVs. Man, this coffee is GOOD.
  • 7:00 PM: Just poured second cup of coffee as the returns from sixteen states worth of EVs, a total of 171, pour in. My steady, stimulated gaze is on New Hampshire. Should go early to Obama and by double-digits. If it doesn’t, it bodes well for McCain nationally. McCain gets 33 EVs (Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee) for a total of 80 while Obama gets 79 EVs (Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New Jersey) for a total of 82. Toss up 59 EVs (Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania) for a total of 92. I just tossed my kids in the tub for their nightly baths.
  • 7:30 PM: Kids are clean and in jammies just in time to see our state, worth 6 EVs, and North Carolina, worth 15 EVs, close their polls. McCain gets 6 EVs (Arkansas) for a total of 86 EVs, while toss ups increase to 107 with the addition of North Carolina.
  • 8:00 PM: I’m getting the shakes, whether its caffeine or anticipation, they are serious! Just like the number of EVs, 156 to be exact, now on the board. I shudder watching Arizona because it will indicate how well McCain is doing in the southwest. If it goes to McCain by a solid margin, he will do well in the region. McCain gets 70 EVs (Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming) Obama receives 72 EVs (Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin). Fourteen EVs (Colorado, New Mexico) get added to the toss up. TOTALS: McCain 156, Obama 154, Toss up 121.
  • 9:00 PM: Kids are snoozing and I am snacking on my Snickers along with the returns from Iowa. If Obama gets Iowa by a large margin he will also be strong in the midwest. McCain gets 8 EVs (Montana and Utah) for a total of 164 and Obama gets 7 EVs (Iowa) for a total of 161. Toss up adds 5 EVs (Nevada) to total 126. Coffee and Snickers go good together.
  • 10:00 PM: As I brew my second pot of coffee, 84 more electoral votes have brewed up. While North Dakota (3 EVs) will be close, I believe all of these states will remain in their ’04 categories. McCain picks up 7 EVs (Idaho and North Dakota) and Obama picks up 77 EVs (California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington). California could be interestingly tighter with the Gay Marriage Ban on the ballot. McCain 171, Obama 238, Toss up 126.
  • 12:00 AM: Intravenous coffee, now that’s an idea! It’s hard to go back and forth from exit polls, to returns, to my coffee, to my blog, to the TV. Which, by the way, just called Palin’s passion, Alaska (3 EVs) for McCain increasing his total to 174. My ears are ringing and I’m bouncing like gnat on espresso.
  • RIDICULOUSLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING: My hair is now standing on end. At this point, I don’t care if it is caffeine or anxiety induced because the tossups are beginning to break. If you value sleep, just keep an eye on Indiana, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Iowa for the reasons stated above and you will have a good idea how the rest will go. However, some of you rather enjoy zombie-dom. For arguments sake, because lack of sleep makes me cranky, I’ll give McCain 78 Toss up EVs (Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio) and Obama 27 Toss up EVs (Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia). McCain 252, Obama 265, Tossup 21. The Keystone state (Pennsylvania) should decide the election. How much impact will McCain’s surge have there? What about Murtha’s racist, redneck comments? I’m not going to call this one…you need a reason to keep watching…and I need a reason for more coffee.

Remember, the ONLY poll that matters is the one on Election Day! Take your kids with you…they may be motivated to shape this nation for generations to come. My dad took me. Look at how I turned out…well, I’m sort of an extreme example.

Join me on election night on my blog for analysis at http://dtatp.blogtownhall.com/ as I post my moment to moment thoughts throughout election night. You can share your thoughts as well while you are there. I will have plenty of coffee on hand!

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Baseball Ties

 

Are you noticing the parallel between what we see happening in the baseball playoffs and what we witness occurring in the Presidential campaign? I wasn’t until I heard Bill Kristol compare the Red Sox/Rays series to the McCain/Obama race. Kristol asserted that the Rays represented Obama and the Sox represented McCain. I spent some time pondering this and I think he was close, but not quite right.

In the spirit of discussion, let’s imagine the American League playoffs as the Democrat Party primaries and the National as the Republican.

Certainly, this equates the Rays’ campaign to the Obama campaign. Young, exciting, inspirational, great story, came out of nowhere to get past the older, experienced favorite…Boston…to play for a title. So, who does Boston represent? The Clinton campaign! The Angels as the Edwards campaign…flashy, sexy, but not able to get the job done. What about the Sox, you know, the White Sox? Ozzie Guillen, their manager, reminds me of Joe Biden. I think they both are equally gaffable.

So the Phillies become the McCain campaign? McCain lost to Dubya in 2000, Phillies lost last year. McCain sank last summer while supporting the surge strategy in Iraq and was considered dead on arrival in the primaries. The Phillies needed a comeback/swoon to make the playoffs. The runner-up Dodgers become the runner-up Huck, surprising everyone, especially after swinging a major player in Manny. Huck swung the conservative support of the conservative radio syndicates and rode that momentum as far as it would take him. This makes the Cubbies and the Romney campaign synonomous…all the money spent, the favorite heading into the primary, and nothing to show for it. Finally, we have the Brewers, hard-working, hard-fighting, fundamentally sound…yet just not good enough to compete…this is the Ron Paul campaign.

Patriot Pondering…Ron Paul’s endorsement of Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party Presidential Candidate) will impact the more conservative voters as they head to the polls. Don’t be surprised if he gets 1 or 2% on election day. Imagine the difference that can make in one or more of the swing states?

Theory: If the Phils win the series, McCain wil win the White House…if the Rays succeed, Obama is the next President. Guess that makes McCain a Philly fanatic and gives Obama plenty of reason to “show some love” to the Rays.

Patriot Pondering…The polls you are seeing are weighted to a 6-8% Democrat advantage when the actual difference over the past two elections has been closer to 2%. How much should you trust the polls?

Patriot election prediction coming soon!

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