Posted by
MarkTheTruePatriotWest on Tuesday, November 04, 2008 8:01:56 PM
| TIME |
|
|
realclearpolitics.com |
fivethirtyeight.com |
2004 Result |
| 7:00 PM |
STATE |
EV |
McCain |
Obama |
Dif |
McCain |
Obama |
Dif |
Bush |
Kerry |
Dif |
| |
ALABAMA |
9 |
56.8 |
33.5 |
23.3 |
61.5 |
37.7 |
23.8 |
63 |
37 |
26 |
| |
CONNECTICUT |
7 |
36.0 |
55.3 |
-19.3 |
39.0 |
57.7 |
-18.7 |
44 |
54 |
-10 |
| |
DELAWARE |
3 |
37.3 |
58.3 |
-21.0 |
38.6 |
59.9 |
-21.3 |
46 |
53 |
-7 |
| |
D.C. |
3 |
9.0 |
90.0 |
-81.0 |
18.1 |
81.7 |
-63.6 |
9 |
90 |
-81 |
| |
FLORIDA |
27 |
47.2 |
49.0 |
-1.8 |
48.5 |
49.7 |
-1.2 |
52 |
47 |
5 |
| |
ILLINOIS |
21 |
34.3 |
59.0 |
-24.7 |
37.7 |
60.2 |
-22.5 |
44 |
55 |
-11 |
| |
MAINE |
4 |
38.8 |
54.4 |
-15.6 |
42.0 |
55.1 |
-13.1 |
45 |
54 |
-9 |
| |
MARYLAND |
10 |
39.5 |
52.8 |
-13.3 |
37.4 |
61.0 |
-23.6 |
43 |
56 |
-13 |
| |
MASSACHUSETTS |
12 |
35.7 |
57.0 |
-21.3 |
38.5 |
58.7 |
-20.2 |
37 |
62 |
-25 |
| |
MISSISSIPPI |
6 |
50.7 |
39.3 |
11.4 |
54.5 |
43.0 |
11.5 |
60 |
40 |
20 |
| |
MISSOURI |
11 |
48.5 |
47.8 |
0.7 |
49.3 |
49.0 |
0.3 |
53 |
46 |
7 |
| |
NEW HAMPSHIRE |
4 |
42.2 |
52.8 |
-10.6 |
44.3 |
53.3 |
-9.0 |
49 |
50 |
-1 |
| |
NEW JERSEY |
15 |
39.0 |
54.5 |
-15.5 |
41.6 |
55.6 |
-14.0 |
46 |
53 |
-7 |
| |
OKLAHOMA |
7 |
59.3 |
30.3 |
29.0 |
63.5 |
36.3 |
27.2 |
66 |
34 |
32 |
| |
PENNSYLVANIA |
21 |
43.7 |
51.0 |
-7.3 |
45.1 |
53.1 |
-8.0 |
49 |
51 |
-2 |
| |
TENNESSEE |
11 |
52.8 |
38.8 |
14.0 |
56.5 |
41.7 |
14.8 |
57 |
43 |
14 |
| |
TOTAL |
171 |
44 |
127 |
|
44 |
127 |
|
71 |
100 |
|
|
ELECTION TOTAL |
254 |
91 |
163 |
|
91 |
163 |
|
151 |
103 |
|
Alabama (9 EVs), Connecticut (7 EVs), Delaware (3 EVs), D.C. (3 EVs), Illinois (21 EVs), Maine (4 EVs), Maryland (10 EVs), Massachusetts (12 EVs), Mississippi (6 EVs), New Jersey (15 EVs), Oklahoma (7 EVs), Tennessee (11 EVs) – Polling indicates all of these states will look just like they did in ’04.
Florida (27 EVs) – Polls show Obama leading here, reversing the ’04 Dubya win. McCain needs this state to win. I don’t see any likely scenario that shows McCain becoming President without this state.
Missouri (11 EVs) – Polls show a toss up. As goes Missouri, so goes the nation.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) – Polls show Obama to wrap this up with a huge percentage. If this state remains close…McCain is doing well nationally.
Pennsylvania (21 EVs) – Is the McCain surge a smokescreen? Polls show Obama winning this state comfortably. If it remains close, again, McCain is doing well nationally.