Posted by
MarkTheTruePatriotWest on Tuesday, November 04, 2008 5:44:56 PM
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TIME
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realclearpolitics.com
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fivethirtyeight.com
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2004 Result
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6:00 PM
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STATE
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EV
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McCain
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Obama
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Dif
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McCain
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Obama
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Dif
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Bush
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Kerry
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Dif
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GEORGIA
|
15
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49.9
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45.8
|
4.1
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51.5
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47.1
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4.4
|
58
|
41
|
17
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|
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INDIANA
|
11
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47.8
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46.4
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1.4
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49.6
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48.5
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1.1
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60
|
39
|
21
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KENTUCKY
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8
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54.5
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41.0
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13.5
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56.1
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42.1
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14.0
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60
|
40
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20.0
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SOUTH CAROLINA
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8
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53.0
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43.0
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10.0
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54.7
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44.0
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10.7
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58
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41
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17
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VERMONT
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3
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34.6
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58.4
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-23.8
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37.1
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59.6
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-22.5
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39
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59
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-20
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VIRGINIA
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13
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45.8
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50.2
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-4.4
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46.6
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51.8
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-5.2
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54
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46
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8
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TOTAL
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58
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42
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16
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42
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16
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55
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3
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Posting this now, got soccer practice with my four-year-old until 6:30PM.
Georgia (15 EVs) - Polls have been showing this state as a close race, about a 4% difference. Dubya won this state by 17% in ’04. I expect McCain to win this state by about 7-10%. If this state remains close, 4% or less, it is a negative indicator for McCain nationally.
Indiana (11 EVs) - Polls are showing this as a toss up with McCain leading by 1%. Dubya won this state by 21% in ’04. If this state remains close, as Georgia, it is a negative indicator for McCain. However, it if and Georgia hold to form, McCain may be doing very well tonight.
Kentucky (8 EVs), South Carolina (8 EVs), Vermont (3) - Polls seem to be holding to form and I believe these states will do so tonight. Kentucky and South Carolina to McCain, Vermont to Obama.
Virginia (13 EVs) – Polls have shown Obama leading in this state that Bush won by 8% in ’04. If this state remains with 1-3%, the election is going well for McCain nationally. However, if Obama is leading by 3 or more %...it will be a short night!